There is likely no prediction I can make for the Preakness that will generate as much entertainment value as my ill-fated Kentucky Derby picks.
But here goes anyway.
More or less, my system says to just bet against the favorite, and only filly, in the race, Rachel Alexandra.
The horse my computer program likes best in terms of betting value, believe it or not, is longshot Flying Private. I also liked that horse in the Kentucky Derby, and he rewarded my faith by finishing dead last, more than 40 lengths behind the winner. Based on that disastrous run, he will likely go off at huge odds.
There are a handful of horses that my system more or less likes. These are the horses, along with Flying Private, I will build a superfecta ticket around: Musket Man, Papa Clem, General Quarters, PioneeroftheNile, Friesan Fire, and Mine that Bird.
Essentially, though, these are all the major contenders,
minus the favorite. So basically I am just betting against
the favorite.
The most important piece of information, however, given my
past history, is the fact that there is one horse that stands
out as by far the worst in the field: Luv Gov.
Thank you for giving us some nice, concise betting strategy in the very last line of the article. Luv Gov it is!
ResponderEliminarPutting money on Luv Gov
ResponderEliminarI know this impossible, but I predict Luv Gov will win, place and show.
ResponderEliminarI like a longshot, but without the benefit of your computer program, I tend to just say "Baaah" and go with the handicapper consensus, which seems to be Rachel Alexandra. Out of 17 handicappers, she was the top pick. casetherace.com/articles/139.html. But no one seems to think there is value in the bet.
ResponderEliminarWay off, once again!
ResponderEliminarRachel Alexandra Wins the Preakness Stakes
Rachel Alexandra, ridden by Calvin Borel, won the 134th
Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore on
Saturday. She is the first filly to win the Preakness in 85
years.
Read More:
nytimes.com/?emc=na
It seems the best choice may be to bet against Levitt.
ResponderEliminarDude, not again!
ResponderEliminarI think you'd better redeem yourself with an American Idol winner prediction (hint: Adam Lambert).
Your sister,
Linda
The favourite winning is no surprise, so one needn't feel bad for having bet on another. It's when the non-favourite you didn't bet on wins that you should get disappointed.
ResponderEliminarThe fact that a horse lost by a long way, or even that it has a high probability of losing by a long way doesn't preclude it having a good chance of coming first relative to its odds - some horses may have a big variance in their performaces.
This program seems as effective as all the ones I receive offers for in the mail-worthless!
ResponderEliminarHe bet againstthat horse because it was the favorite, the program won't predict a favorite winning.
ResponderEliminarthird time is a charm. validation and redemption. now if you only had a prog to predict the random walk of wall street....
ResponderEliminarfor what its worth, here's my system.
ResponderEliminarbet on a horse that wants to win. obviously you can't get into the mind of a horse so a proxy for this is to look for a horse with increasingly improving form, say 4th 3 races ago, 3rd 2 races ago & 2nd last race.
also go where the money is. if odds suddenly shrink, then its a good assumption somebody knows something and the horse should do well.
Can you please make a system to determine the next Super Bowl winner, then tell us who your system says to bet against? No reason, just asking...
ResponderEliminar