lunes, 16 de febrero de 2009

What Else Acts Like Cheap Wine and Cigarettes?

Denis Defreyne



It's interesting to see how people's spending patterns respond to a (presumably) temporary decline in income during the recession.

Which items are more or less income-elastic in the short run? A pediatrician friend of ours mentions that he is seeing less business; when there are three kids with coughs, for example, a parent will bring in one, get him diagnosed, then treat the other two the same way at home -- thus saving two co-payments.

The Austin marathon, the biggest race of the year, will not have its usual corporate sponsors, and thus no elite runners either. I expect that, as in the last recession, there will also be a large decline in plastic surgeries.

All of these appear to be postponable luxuries -- and I wonder what are other weird examples? Also, aside from the usual suspects (grocery purchases being the standard example), what else doesn't decrease much? Pornography, cigarettes, cheap wine?

(Hat tip: AS)

105 comentarios:

  1. I have never allowed my pediatrician to charge me for two visits when both kids have the same thing. I don't care what the state of the economy is - that's just prudence.

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  2. McDonalds/Burger King are probably going to do well amidst the recession (seeing that they are inferior goods compared to traditional restaurants)
    T.V. stations are probably going to pull in bigger numbers, since more people will stay at home than go to out.

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  3. Um... did I get that right? Children's health is a "postponable luxury"???

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  4. Dry Cleaning. People who wear suits to work can't switch to a different outfit while there is no other close substitute for cleaning them. And I really hope wearing the same shirt twice does not count as a substitute.

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  5. Regarding Porn, Kink.com, recently laid off 13 employees, about 10% of it's SF workforce. Less ppl are paying for subscriptions, and possibly being more satisfied with the free verisions of pay sites.

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  6. Cheap wine might do better, as cheap wine is only a little worse than expensive wine, but a whole lot better than no wine at all.

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  7. I wasn't aware that people actually paid for pornography anymore.

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  8. I'm hoping "demand for print collections of online comics" stays good. My business has almost doubled each year for the last three years.

    I've seen presenters in the comics world explain how during the Great Depression and during the recession of the early 80's comics boomed. I don't know how much actual, non-anecdotal research was done, though. And I don't know how much of it applies today to the Free Content Business Model in use by online cartoonists like myself.

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  9. Laundromats. People always have to clean their clothes.

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  10. As a teacher at a private school, we are all wondering what percentage of our students will be back in the fall. So far, we have reason to be hopeful.

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  11. I had a history professor once claim that both chocolate and makeup sales tended to increase during recessions, though I never got the opportunity to actually check that.

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  12. Beyond QSR as mentioned above, apparently impulse 'luxuries' for women, such as make-up and lotions, do well. Instead of the $500+ purse we are trading down to treat outselves to a $10 lipstick.

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  13. Sales of condoms increase during economic downturns as couples put off having children.

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  14. I would say prostitutes, but I shouldn't open that can of rice again.

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  15. Since quitting isn't really an option for most nicotine addicts watch for declines in brand-name sales and increases in generic brands and rolling tobacco.

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  16. didn't the porn industry ask for a bailout???

    i wonder also if there would be a decline in "coffee costs" - those 2-3 dollars many people spend every day on coffee, which in the long run comes to be a great cost not usually considered.

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  17. Wal-mart's doing well, I hear....

    And I don't see a lot of private ski lessons going on these days, at least at the mid-end resorts I frequent. Particularly childrens' groups seem to be much larger, with little ski munchkins strung out for several hundred yards behind the lone instructor. And on the subject of skiing, an experience I had over Christmas was the inverse of the "Wal-Mart effect". I went into several Sports Authority stores looking for gear - the stores were empty of people looking for entry-level ski and snowboard packages. Then I went to Colorado Ski and Golf, a higher-end ski shop for us serious powder hounds. Longest lines I'd ever seen in the store. In this case, it was the higher priced gear, the gear targeted at better skiers, that was selling, not the cheaper stuff.

    Don't know what any of this means, I just love to talk skiing.

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  18. But seriously, I am curious why someone with a stable job and good income would or should cut back. All of the media reports about needing to be frugal has me a bit perplexed.

    It seems to me that all of the "we all need to cut back" pressure that I perceive from just about every form of media is really misguided. I feel pretty comfortable in my job and make a good wage, although it won't be rising in the near term, and can afford to buy or do just about anything I could a year ago.

    So shouldn't I be encouraged to SPEND money, not cut back? Won't this help the economy and create jobs? At times I feel bad for planning vacations and spending on other than necessities. Shouldn't I actually feel good that I can pump money back into the system?

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  19. I don't see dry cleaning staying the same. With the at-home kits, people will stop paying for the expense. And yes, some people will wear a shirt twice (if you didn't sweat in it and hang it up when you get home, it shouldn't be a big deal, especially for suits).

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  20. Sales of the Wii console are pushing 50 million! It is relatively cheap entertainment. A game that can be played for months is cheaper than a night at the movies for a family of 4.

    I wonder if board game sales are up?

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  21. We in the Vintage clothing biz are clipping right along.
    Vintage gowns are a relatively inexpensive way to wear a one of.

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  22. I wonder if DVD rentals increase as an alternative to expensive movie tickets.

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  23. hybrid and used cars, shoe repairs, table salt, high fructose corn syrup, public schools, outlet shopping, eyeglasses, refurbished and used electronics, and online radio should all do well. Some are inferior but most save money comyared to other goods.

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  24. I bet Netflix is doing well. In the Great Depression unemployed people went to the movies, but with single movie tickets now costing the same or more than a monthly subscription with unlimited streaming I may never go to the movies again.

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  25. A perusal of 1930's magazines will show many items whose sales do well in tough times. One of my favorites is a 1930's black rubber goo sold to be applied to tires when the cord is showing. You guessed it..."Tread Spread".

    By the way...Google has digitized hundreds of magazines. My favorite is the early Popular Mechanics. I am now happily engrossed in the 1905 editions.

    See: tinyurl.com/arnjvu

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  26. Drugs. Not the illegal kind, although I don't doubt that they are pretty recession proof also, but legal ones like salvia. Apparently business is booming for companies that make and sell salvia.

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  27. Do Community Colleges do well in a recession? As more unemployed people go back to school?

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  28. A few months ago I was talking to the owner of the convenience store next to my business. He was complaining business was off and that you know the economy is in the toilet when people aren't getting their porn, cigs and booze. So apparently those items do suffer when income is down.

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  29. Yeah, no one pays for p*rn, except for DVDs and no one wants to pay $19.95 (U.S.) and more for those. I don't know how the whole pr*stitution market works, but I suppose people are not going to pay $100 when they can get the same thing for $20.

    I've been eating a lot more beans and rice lately.

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  30. I believe these inferior goods (where sales go up during such a time) is what we economists call GIFFEN GOODS :)

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  31. I heard KFC are doing well ( uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090216/tuk-kfc-to-create-9-000-new-jobs-6323e80.html )

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  32. ..and the expensive skiing equipment would be Veblen goods, (high status goods) where peoples' preference for buying them increases as a direct function of their price, instead of decreasing.

    I find this trying times a fascinating observation of what's actually happening in the economy.

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  33. Perhaps as affluence wanes, tangible concerns will begin to compete once again with intangible concerns, perhaps reducing outlay on the services of mental health professionals. People confronted by tangible forms of failure or loss might be less haunted by less tangible phantoms.

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  34. Beer, dog food, Spam, hot dogs, Salvation Army and Goodwill clothes, potatoes, cabbage, sneakers, lipstick all do better during recessions. And some are really good together like cabbage, spam, and beer.

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  35. I have seen a lot more commercials for VOIP. I have used Vonage for awhile, and if you still need a landline you should consider it. It is cheaper and,in my opinion, superior.

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  36. I too am shocked that many people bother to pay for pornography. Its not like the internet lacks free and legal porn.

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  37. GoodWill and Salvation Armies will see a great year ahead of them. Mt. Dew and Pepsi will do good as well as a economically friendly price per liter compared to milk or juice.

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  38. And a further thought -- one area my business neighbor said was up over last year was lottery tickets. (Which I see as a tax on the math-impaired.)

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  39. Netflix and Blockbuster online will do well because they are much cheaper than going to a theater and still a better deal than renting from your local store every week. Although this may change when the Post Office goes down to 5 days a week resulting in fewer days to get movies each week.

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  40. "But seriously, I am curious why someone with a stable job and good income would or should cut back."

    -->Perhaps because they saw friends with stable jobs and good incomes be unexpectedly downsized. Or perhaps they're carrying debt and now realizing that it might be better to pay that off ASAP.

    When someone else's house burns down, it reminds us to check the batteries in our detectors and have our chimneys inspected.

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  41. Take a walk! Enjoy the fresh air, nature-- Watch an old movie--- play cards---- dance to the music--

    I am tired of spending- and dislike acidy cheap wine-- will wait til more expensive is affordable or save for that rainy day--what's wrong with banks making it worth more our while to save than to spend- with higher interest rates-

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  42. Charity shops in Britain are seeing a big upsurge in customers but a downturn in donations.

    And animal charities are really struggling. More and more people are giving up their dogs and cats and there are less people willing to adopt a dog or cat so the rescue centers are full of unwanted pets. Very sad.

    In the UK everyone has to pay an annual TV licence fee of

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  43. As an attorney representing homeowners seeking short sales and deeds in lieu of foreclosure in Michigan, my business is booming.

    see: outfromundermyhouse.com

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  44. ps- appreciate what you have- family and friends-- Cigarette companies should go into health business (put their money into research, including nicotineless cigarettes-) with the longer life span expectations- I wager that it will be more lucrative long-term. And non-destructive.

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  45. From what I've seen down in Texas, what is REALLY selling right now is firearms and ammunition. The local WalMart is entirely out of most major calibers (9mm, .38 Special, .357 Magnum, .40 S&W, .223) and apparently it sells out almost as soon as it gets on the shelves. The local Academy (sporting goods chain in the south and southwest) had its shelves looking pretty bare as well. One of the local outdoors/firearm shops in town has taking to filling its racks with air rifles they have lying around to keep the shelves from looking too empty.

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  46. How do you get prescription drugs for kid #2 and #3?

    And if you knew there wouldn't be any antibiotics (or else) prescribed, why would you even bring kid #1 to the doctor?

    It doesn't make any sense to me.

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  47. I'm with #18. If you have a steady income there's no reason to cut back. My husband and I are spending at the same rate, planning a vacation, etc. My mom and her boyfriend are building a house right now and the construction crew is glad for the work.

    What won't decrease:

    Repair shops for vacuums, shoes, tools, etc may see an increase. Automotive repair too, as people hold on to older cars, but not body shops since the appearance isn't a necessity.

    Eyeglasses, instead of contacts. Contacts require a yearly visit to the optometrist, and frequent purchases. While a pair of glasses can last years.

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  48. To commenter #18: you can think you have a good job and income as much as you like, until you don't. I had a near 6-figure job Friday morning, but not anymore. Fortunately I was prepared and have over a year's living expenses saved instead of spending it on unnecessary things. There is no such thing as "disposable" income anymore.

    Most people I know have not saved a thing and will be in serious, panic-mode trouble if/when they lose their jobs. Nobody is indispensable.

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  49. Luxury: Pets, Print Media? (not sure, would have to check what percentage of the country has home internet access)

    Not a necessity, but I don't expect demand to change much: any form of beyond basic TV programming (cable, etc.)

    I also wonder how wine consumption at restaurants might change. Based on my own spending habits, once I decide to spend on a luxury, I don't place limits because I know I'm already spending on something I don't really need. So, my guess would be the proportion of L of wine sold by bottle over L of wine sold by glass will increase.

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  50. It's anecdotal, but in the high-end wine-and-liquor store where I work, wine sales are up year-over-year, as are sales of cheap liquors (cheap vodka and Canadian whiskey especially). High-end wine is down a bit, as people "trade down" from $100-a-bottle wines to more affordable offerings, but our under-$40 sales are up, and it seems that the people who drank there last year aren't trading down.

    So, yeah, cheap wine and booze.

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  51. I am im charge of marketing for a dry cleaner. I will say that there is some drop off. But, we are getting a lot of cleaning and a LOT of alterations. My prediction was that cleaning and alterations will increase as its cheaper and thriftier to use what you have, have a suit cleaned and pressed rather than buy a new one. Rather than toss a skirt because you lose weight, have it taken in. If something is a bit dated, have it remade.

    I spent more on Christmas ornaments and decor this year, I figured that decorating the house really well adds a lot of ambience and cheer and its something EVERYONE can appreciate. $20 extra in lights and geegaws, goes a lot further than $20 toward a gift for an individual. $20 for more cookies and soda for a party spreads more cheer than if it went to upgrading a present.

    So I think that whole nesting thing will occur and people will spend more on making their homes a comfy haven, than on going out and spending money elsewhere.

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  52. Gov. David Patterson (NY) recently increased the sales tax on porn by a few percent. This may indicate that pornography is indeed doing well.

    Sale of condoms may fall because even though it's a cheap substitute relative to actually having children, its also a complementary good to romantic dinners out, flowers, going to the movies, etc. Growth rate of children born will fall but only because people can't afford to go out on as many or as lavish dates.

    People may be switching to cheaper foods which contain more high fructose corn syrup, however, the corn industry is suffering due to the fallen price of gasoline causing the drop in demand for ethanol-fueled vehicles.

    99-Cent stores will do better. Not simply because many goods there are inferior, but because not all of the goods are inferior. It is simple price effect, paying less for the same thing.

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  53. Veterinary care will suffer. People typically do not have pet insurance and they will delay or skip immunizations.

    I wonder if car insurance companies will do worse? If people are keeping cars longer, the insurance cost goes down with the value of the vehicle. In addition, many people go with liability only on older cars. This impacts revenue, but if they don't have to pay to repair new cars as much, I wonder what the overall will be?

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  54. The Vienna sausage business is booming. This is not a guess. My friend, who works at a plant which makes the greasy little treats, has been working a lot of overtime in the past 12 months.

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  55. @38 Jason:

    With all due respect, I don't think many people consider Mountain Dew a reasonable substitute for milk.

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  56. My Husband and I own a small Ma and Pa Hardware store we are selling a lot more repair items. People aren't buying knew they are fixing the old.

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  57. Apparently movies are quite inelastic. $10 is a fairly inexpensive way to spend an evening versus a $100 sporting event or the theatre.



    businesstradeboard.com

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  58. Did anyone mention public universities or the military? College loans may be the only available credit out there these days, and I am willing to bet our volunteer armed services enrollment is correlated with the business cycle as it offers a safe source of income.

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  59. I can imagine dog sales have gone down, signifcantly. But im sure that pounds and dog shelters have recieved much more help via. voulanteers (I'm sure there are a lot more people around trying to fulfill commuity service hours for minor misdemeanors).

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  60. I'm from Guatemala and I can tell you for sure that HARD liquor (rum) does better than beer, because it's easier to get drunk.

    And maybe because laws are different, emergency calls can do better ... interns and nurses ask YOU if you want so see a specialist, a little bit of scare tactics, instead of them telling you if you SHOULD see a specialist or not. This told to me by a nurse.

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  61. My $15 haircut will still be purchased once a month regardless of income situation. Frightening though it may be, going to a high-end stylist might have to be replaced with visits to the local beauty school.

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  62. Here in Denmark the prostitutes are complaining about a sudden decline in customers.
    Business is down to 25 to 50%.
    (prostitution is legal in Denmark)

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  63. In Britain sales from cheap supermarkets such as Aldi are up, at the expense of posh supermarkets such as Waitrose. Sales of some small luxuries, such as gift-wrapped cup cakes for $15, are buoyant. Speaking personally, my wife and I will get a couple of nice steaks and a good bottle of wine as a substitute for eating out

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  64. I don't believe anyone has mentioned espresso coffee and cafes yet. Everyone knows Starbucks has been taking a big hit. Cheaper to drink instant or brew espresso domestically.

    #37 - the porn industry has been suffering but its unrelated to the economy. Its the ubiquity of free porn; amateurs and piracy.

    #47 - I thought ammunition shortages have been common the last few years. More ammunition use by the military (mostly training i think) that had to satisfied by leaning on the producers who normally fed the civilian market.

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  65. I'm postponing my nipple rings.

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  66. Someone mentioned condoms...I doubt it as they are still rather expensive compared to the "technique" without birth control and hope everything will be fine. I think it is reasonable to say younger people are more sexually active than older people. Since USA's teen pregnancy rate leads the world those who would contribute more to condom sales are not contributing.

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  67. More interesting things that will probably not be purchased in the next couple of years:

    1) Paris Hilton albums
    2) Low-calorie foods
    3) Glow-in-the-dark condoms
    4) iPod extended warranties
    5) Legal tax preparation
    6) Food inspector services
    7) Conde Nast magazine
    8) Fix-a-Flat

    On the brighter side, sales for Herbalife will probably vault (seems that there is an inverse relationship between the economy and common sense).

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  68. I would say cinemas will do well... watching a film at the cinema is cheap entertainment. Also, condoms I am sure will do well... and Gillett. Men will have to shave more. It has been proven that most women prefer a neatly shaved face... men will have to replace the alure of money with a neatly shaved face.

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  69. @Leland Witter
    I second that. It was just 6 months ago that people were spending as if there was no tomorrow. That, when there were enough 'attractive' ventures for investment (Madoff for one??). When investment opportunities have all but dried up, why reduce expenses. The point for starting savings/ investment is about a year from now.

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  70. Addy- an inferior good is one where demand increases as income decreases. A Giffen good is a specific type of inferior goo: when the price of a Giffen good increases, demand for that good increases.

    "as Sir R. Giffen has pointed out, a rise in the price of bread makes so large a drain on the resources of the poorer labouring families and raises so much the marginal utility of money to them, that they are forced to curtail their consumption of meat and the more expensive farinaceous foods: and, bread being still the cheapest food which they can get and will take, they consume more, and not less of it"

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  71. I read a report in a local newspaper in Chennai that due to the IT sector slowdown, cab and auto drivers (an auto is like a 3-wheeler cab) are putting in more hours on the road to reach the number of rides they used to get. Here in India, there is a huge market for used mobile phones - I am guessing that market would be taking a hit too - since someone has to move up a rung to a new mobile phone for a his/her mobile to enter the market for used mobiles.

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  72. Everything that can be marketed / works as a subtitute product may work well.

    Like instead of going to vacations overseas people will tend to stay in their country / region but they will go somewhere anyway.

    With this logic maybe expensive beers, as a substitute of more expensive wine can gain. Its all a question of how people think about these products / what is their "cultural position".

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  73. Public library use tends to increase during economic downturns. Free access is never a bad thing!

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  74. Sales in newspapers, magazines and theoretical books for the "regular" reader [such as economy, finance, ... social blabla with wonderful, cheap covers, that can be read while in the bathroom or - ironically enough - in the kitchen] will increase . Audio books might do good too,maybe even better than the first "batch". Anyway,the point is, in the time of crisis people need at least three things:
    1. Other people's opinion.
    2. Something that can provide hope.
    3. Funny and catchy information.
    [4. Do they ever worry about food?]

    Characteristic to their behavior is the fact that they turn into extremists, puritans ... for the rest of their life's, or until the NEW money is in.

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  75. Public storage is likely in this camp. While you may foreclose on your home, you still likely want to keep all of your stuff - therefore, you would pay for public storage instead (as it is a cheaper alternative).

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  76. Strabucks? Its expensive but people who are addicted will probably go to starbucks given they didn't lose their job.

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  77. starbucks - I'm from Romania, and as well as in the US or any other Starbucks encampment, addiction to brands and "images" - [also the comfort of space and people that share the same addiction] - will not permit (psychologicaly) a cut-back from that cup of whatever.
    All this is a mental crisis now, not financial one [not anymore at least ].....

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  78. Interesting to separate discretionary/basic medical services during this time:

    BASIC: appendectomy, stroke evals, Tdap and MMR vaccine

    DISCRETIONARY: hernia repair, "caugh and cold" evals, Gardisil (HPV) vaccine

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  79. @Brenden, #11

    Loreal (cosmetics) just laid off 500 employees as a result of slow sales. They halted shipments to Russian retailers for lack of payment.

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  80. #70: They've been going on for the past couple of years for all the reasons you mention, but they've really taken off after November because of paranoia over Obama and the potential for new gun control laws. A year ago, prices increased a good amount, but you could at least find a box or two pretty consistently without having to stake out the store to wait for a shipment. Nowadays, shelves at a number of places are absolutely BARE. Besides, it's not just the ammunition, but the guns themselves (particularly those of the type covered by the now defunct assault weapons ban) that are getting hard to find. One of my local firearms retailers ordered about 70 stripped AR-15 lower receivers last year and pre-sold almost all of them before they made it to the store. At another one, they were telling a customer that if he wanted an AR-15 he'd have to get on a three month (at least) waiting list.

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  81. Tourism/leisure spending at local destinations. Rather than people traveling half-way around the world or over from UK to continental Europe, will now prefer to spend their weekends/holidays at local tourist destinations. I know of at least 3 colleagues (high fliers and regular skiers) who will drive down to Devon or Lake District this Easter. I will follow suite!

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  82. I expect pornography consumption to increase as men across the country are forced to spend more time at home.

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  83. I think public parks will see an increase in attendance as people look for cheap ways to entertain themselves. A day at the beach or camping at a state park can be a cheap family vacation. Maybe museums, too, especially on the "free" days.
    House parties, like byob-style, are going to increase in my circle of friends. We'd rather save money and watch the game at home, rather than buy the food and beer at a sports bar. Pizza take out/delivery may also increase, as another way to feed a group cheaply.

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  84. "Teach yourself how to" books

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  85. "Also, aside from the usual suspects (grocery purchases being the standard example), what else doesn

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  86. I think McDonalds recently posted a healthy profit (but that may have just been the subsidiary here in New Zealand).

    I suspect all of the 'cheap' fast food places will pick up business as the public scale back on more expensive meals out.

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  87. #18, we felt the same way until Monday morning when my boyfriend lost his job. Fortunately, I'm safe in my job for now, but our income is cut in half.

    We'd just paid off debts and gotten a little bit of a nest egg going. I'd heard it time and again from economic advisers, but I can't say it enough. Have 3 months expenses in savings. You never know when this could happen to you.

    Good luck to others on this list who are in our boat. We're with you!

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  88. You folks are all in a dreamworld. I'm sure instead planning for the impending long emergency, you're sitting at home watching Survivor or The Batchelor, living in your TV "Reality" world and sitting around chanting Yes We Can.

    We're going down folks...lifeboats have already launched, and they're filled to the brim with politicians and crooked financial types. Sorry to burst your bubble.

    Remember, for every budget cutback you make, someone loses a job. The system is about to be overwhelmed.

    the idiot planning their vacations and spending as usual probably lives in the Hamptons and hasn't a clue about the real world...but that's about to change.

    We ARE going to Mad Max. Get ready.

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  89. Card games(magic yu-gi-oh...etc) will definitely see a decrease as money has to be put into them every so often. Also increase in illegal downloading of music videos....etc

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  90. BBBB Bullets, Butts, Butter, and Booze. Good Luck. PS gold will do quite well

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  91. People smoke (and therefore sell) more marijuana. In the words of Gilbert Shelton, creator of the seminal 1970's hippie comic book The Freak Brothers,

    "Dope will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no dope."

    While I no longer smoke the stuff, I happen to agree. If you're too stoned to care, who cares about money?

    Shelton's dubious furry sentiment looks even more sensible in the light of the massive boom in Cocaine use during our recent economic 'high'... an incredibly expensive drug that makes you too stoned to care - about people, not money.

    Flower power drop-outs or power-crazed coke-heads...

    Which do you prefer?

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  92. The lipstick story isn't true:
    economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12995765

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  93. Obviously, Labor Economists can look forward to less toil...and more leisure time.

    Stationary and greeting cards (think TY letters for those out of work and connecting letting for those seeking work)

    im all giffed out...better check my elasticity at the door....i can think of a few more items but...

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  94. Mechanic shops. New car sales go down. Used cars and maintenance goes up.



    Nwest
    businesstradeboard.com

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  95. Well of course one should cut back. Every $10 you don't spend, is $120 you get to keep!

    I don't propose to be cheap all the time, but why should everyday-joe just keep spending to help the economy...when should he fall down...no one is helping him back up?

    It's capitalism and survival of the fit. I hate it when the corporate blow hards suggest we are suddenly all one big happy family, spending to help each other.....and gleefully step over each-others ruined lives if anything goes wrong.

    Sell that b.s to someone else whose stupid and spends all their money on crap. Spending now will not guarantee a nice living later, it will only line the pockets of some decrepit old investors, desiccating in Boca Raton.

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